The Real Story: Immigration and U.S. Housing
An evidence-based examination of how unauthorized immigration has affected housing markets in Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Houston, and across the United States over the past decade.
Los Angeles Metro
Los Angeles County stands as a major hub for unauthorized immigrants, with an estimated 1.1 million residents as of 2023. Yet, despite this substantial population, homeownership remains largely out of reach. Only about 17% of unauthorized immigrants in Los Angeles County reside in owner-occupied housing [2], a figure significantly below the county's general homeownership rate. High housing costs and limited access to credit are key barriers, often pushing these families into rental housing or shared living arrangements to cope with severe affordability challenges.
“Unauthorized immigrants didn’t drive up LA housing prices — they’re building the homes we need.”
Unauthorized Immigrants Not Driving Housing Price Increases in Los Angeles
Over the past decade, Los Angeles housing prices and rents have soared to record levels. This phenomenon is primarily due to chronic undersupply and broader market forces – not a surge of unauthorized buyers. In fact, California's undocumented population was relatively stable or even declined in the late 2010s, even as home prices skyrocketed in the region.
Economists find no clear evidence that unauthorized immigrants have been the cause of Los Angeles's housing cost increases. This aligns with a broader expert consensus:
A recent study examining all U.S. states found "no significant relationship between unauthorized immigrants and general house price growth" [3].
Southern California's housing affordability crisis stems primarily from a combination of insufficient housing construction, restrictive zoning constraints, and the significant increase in demand observed during the pandemic era, rather than immigration patterns. While undocumented residents do contribute to housing demand as renters, their overall impact is considered modest when compared to these much larger, systemic forces [4].
Construction Labor & Housing Supply Impact
Unauthorized immigrants are contributors to housing supply in Los Angeles. The construction sector in California relies heavily on immigrant labor, including many undocumented workers[5].
Policies that remove undocumented workers can reduce construction activity and exacerbate housing shortages. Stricter federal immigration enforcement during the late 2010s led to "lasting declines in construction labor and homebuilding and rising home prices" [6].
Immigrants fill essential construction roles
Los Angeles mirrors this pattern: undocumented workers often fill essential roles in building trades, from roofing to drywall, that enable new home construction. Mass deportations would therefore risk reducing housing supply in L.A., pushing prices higher, rather than lowering costs [7].
The evidence from Los Angeles suggests the presence of unauthorized immigrants has not appreciably inflated home prices or rents; if anything, their labor has helped temper the housing crunch by supporting construction.
New York City Metro
The New York metropolitan area, primarily New York City, is home to a significant unauthorized immigrant community. These residents play a vital role in the city's economy and social fabric, much like their counterparts in Los Angeles.
825K+
Unauthorized Immigrants in NY State
Approximately 825,000–836,000 unauthorized immigrants resided in New York State as of 2023, with the vast majority in the NYC metro area [8].
20%
Homeownership Rate
Only about 20% of undocumented residents own homes, with the vast majority renting due to high housing costs and barriers to property ownership [9].
Many unauthorized families live in rental units across the boroughs, facing the challenges of a rapidly rising rental market. While rents have climbed steeply in New York City over the past decade, especially post-2020, analysis suggests that immigration was not the primary driver of this housing cost surge.
"Rents and home costs started to surge in 2020 and 2021, before the flow of newcomers began to pick up in 2022 and 2023."
Before and After
New York City's housing market experienced its most significant rent and price increases around 2020–2021. This surge was primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including pandemic-related disruptions, historically low interest rates, and a persistent citywide housing shortage.
1
2020-2021
Dramatic rent & price surge in NYC
2
2022-2023
Uptick in immigration begins
Crucially, this period of escalating housing costs preceded the recent uptick in immigration. Analysts widely agree that "rents and home costs started to surge in 2020 and 2021, before the flow of newcomers began to pick up in 2022 and 2023"[4].
New York's housing market was overheating due to internal dynamics well before any significant influx of undocumented migrants in the last few years.
Furthermore, it's important to note that New York's undocumented population was relatively stable or even declining in the early 2010s, following a peak in the 2000s. Therefore, there was no large new wave of unauthorized immigration to fuel the last decade's price growth. Research consistently indicates that immigrants, particularly unauthorized ones, represent a minor component of NYC's housing demand, overshadowed by more dominant factors like gentrification, limited housing stock, and post-pandemic demographic shifts [4].
New York's Immigrant Construction Workforce
As in Los Angeles, unauthorized immigrants play a dual role in New York's housing economy. They rent homes and add to demand, but they are also integral to housing production and maintenance. Immigrants (documented and not) make up about one-third of New York's construction workforce and are prevalent in trades such as carpentry, drywall, and painting [10].
Housing economists emphasize that these workers "do not simply add to housing demand; they are an important part of the workforce that supplies it." New York City's construction industry, from large development projects down to small home renovations, has long depended on immigrant labor, including many without legal status [11].
1/3
NYC Construction Workforce
Immigrants make up approximately 1/3 of New York's construction workforce, filling crucial roles in various trades.
If those workers were removed, construction costs would rise and projects could stall – worsening the housing shortage. Housing economists warn that deporting New York's undocumented workers would likely backfire, reducing housing availability rather than freeing up a meaningful number of units[6].
Unauthorized immigrants have not measurably driven up New York's home prices or rents over the past decade. Instead, they have largely been absorbed into existing housing and have contributed to the city's housing production capacity, mitigating the crisis more than causing it.
Miami Metro Area
Miami and South Florida present a somewhat different trend. The Miami metropolitan area (Miami-Dade and surrounding counties) experienced a significant increase in unauthorized immigrants in the past few years, part of a broader Florida surge. By 2023, Florida's undocumented population reached about 1.6 million (up roughly 700,000 since 2021) – the fastest growth of any state[8]. In Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties specifically, there were approximately 356,000 unauthorized residents as of 2023 [12]. This population is diverse (including many from Latin America and the Caribbean) and relatively new – over one-third have arrived within the last 5 years [13]. Despite Miami's reputation for homeownership, undocumented immigrants here too have low ownership rates (only 20% are homeowners in Miami-Dade/Monroe [14]), meaning about 80% rent or live with others. The influx of undocumented immigrants undoubtedly added some housing demand in South Florida, but the empirical data suggest it has not materially driven Miami's housing boom.
1.6M
Florida Undocumented Population
Up 700,000 since 2021 – fastest growth of any state.
356K
Miami-Dade Residents
Unauthorized residents in Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties (2023).
20%
Homeownership Rate
Among undocumented immigrants in Miami-Dade/Monroe.
"No evidence that the recent increase in immigrant numbers is the cause of [Miami's] housing market strain."
Miami Housing Market Paradox
Immigration & Affordability: A Counterintuitive Truth
Over the past decade, Miami's home prices and rents climbed rapidly, cementing its status as one of the nation's least affordable markets by 2022. This boom, however, was propelled largely by powerful forces unrelated to recent immigration surges.
Key drivers included significant domestic migration, speculative investment, critically limited housing inventory, and the profound economic shifts brought on by the pandemic.
Florida's substantial recent immigrant influx actually coincided with a moderation of housing price growth, not an acceleration.
Indeed, an analysis highlighted a crucial turning point: after immigration ramped up in 2022, the growth rates of both house prices and rents in Miami actually slowed. This finding challenges conventional wisdom and points to other market dynamics at play.
2022: Immigration Ramped Up
Florida's undocumented population surged by 700,000 since 2021, the fastest growth of any state.
2022-2023: Price Growth Slowed
Rising interest rates and new construction cooled Miami's housing market.
This counterintuitive trend reflects how other significant forces – such as rising interest rates in 2022–2023 and a wave of new construction – effectively cooled Miami's housing market, even as more immigrants, including many Venezuelan, Cuban, and Honduran asylum seekers, continued to arrive.
In other words, Miami's deep-rooted affordability challenges were already in motion long before the latest wave of immigration, and these newcomers have not significantly altered the trajectory of prices. The housing market's woes stem from a complex interplay of internal and external economic factors, rather than the demographics of its newest residents.
Miami's Construction Labor Dependency
Unauthorized immigrants are helping to relieve South Florida's housing pressures by expanding supply.
Florida's Housing Shortfall
Florida has one of the nation's worst housing shortfalls – since 2010 its population and households have grown much faster than its housing stock [16].
Immigrant labor is vital to closing this gap. In the Miami area, foreign-born workers (many undocumented) dominate construction crews [10].
1 in 3
Construction Workers Foreign-Born
Florida overall counts tens of thousands of undocumented construction workers. Industry data show that one out of every three construction workers in Florida is foreign-born, and many of those are at risk of deportation [7].
Removing these workers would shrink Florida's homebuilding capacity and exacerbate the housing shortage, especially in fast-growing metros like Miami. Recent history offers evidence: when immigration enforcement tightened in the late 2010s, Florida saw labor shortages that slowed housing construction and likely put upward pressure on rents and home prices [17].
Unauthorized immigrants have been absorbed into the housing market with minimal impact on prices, and their contributions to construction and renovation are an important factor in mitigating housing cost inflation rather than causing it.
Houston Metro Area
Houston, like Miami, has experienced growth in its unauthorized immigrant population, though spread over a longer period. This metro area boasts unique characteristics, particularly its higher rate of homeownership among undocumented immigrants and longer settlement patterns, distinguishing it from coastal metros.
610,000
Unauthorized Immigrants
Living in Harris County
27%
Homeownership Rate
Among unauthorized residents, highest among major metros
2.2-2.4M
Statewide Unauthorized Immigrants
Texas total, from 2021 to 2023[18]
In the Houston metro (Harris County and environs), there are approximately 610,000 unauthorized immigrants (Harris County alone) [19]. One distinguishing feature in Houston is the relatively higher rate of homeownership among undocumented immigrants: about 27% of Harris County's unauthorized residents are homeowners [20], significantly higher than in Los Angeles or Miami. This suggests that many undocumented families in Houston have been settled longer or face lower housing-cost barriers, enabling more to purchase homes (often modest houses in suburban areas). Even so, the majority (about 73%) of Houston's undocumented population rents. Over the past decade, Houston's housing market has seen rising prices and rents, but it remains more affordable than coastal metros due in part to robust housing construction. Illegal immigration has not been a major driver of Houston's housing price trends, according to available data. Housing costs in Houston climbed mostly because of strong overall population and job growth (both native and immigrant) plus oil-driven economic cycles, rather than a discrete impact from undocumented residents.
Immigrant Homeownership by Metro
A unique aspect of Houston's housing market, particularly concerning its unauthorized immigrant population, is highlighted when comparing homeownership rates across major U.S. metros. The following chart illustrates how Houston stands out in this regard:
Houston's higher homeownership among its undocumented residents, with 27% owning homes compared to 17-20% in other major metros like Los Angeles, Miami, and New York, suggests that many undocumented families have been settled longer or face lower housing-cost barriers. This enables more families to purchase homes, often modest houses in suburban areas. Even so, the majority (about 73%) of Houston's undocumented population still rents.
27% vs 17-20%
Higher Homeownership Rate in Houston
73%
Of Houston's undocumented population still rents
Over the past decade, Houston's housing market has seen rising prices and rents, but it remains more affordable than coastal metros due in part to robust housing construction. Despite the growth in its unauthorized immigrant population, the data indicates a clear trend:
Illegal immigration has not been a major driver of Houston's housing price trends. Housing costs in Houston climbed mostly because of strong overall population and job growth (both native and immigrant) plus oil-driven economic cycles, rather than a discrete impact from undocumented residents.
In fact, Houston exemplifies how abundant housing supply can absorb population growth without extreme price spikes, even with a large immigrant influx. The region's relatively permissive land use and steady pace of homebuilding have accommodated many new residents. Unauthorized immigrants have added to demand modestly – for instance, by occupying rental apartments in southwest Houston or buying starter homes in suburbs – but this has been a gradual, diffuse process. No empirical study has singled out illegal immigration as a significant cause of Houston's housing appreciation in the last 10 years. On the contrary, Houston's experience supports the view that immigrants have a balanced impact: they increase housing demand and expand housing supply. Texas relies heavily on immigrant labor for construction, and Houston is a prime example. About 23% of all construction workers in Texas are undocumented [7], and many work on Houston's homebuilding and infrastructure projects.
23%
Of all construction workers in Texas are undocumented
This labor pool has enabled Houston to build tens of thousands of new housing units, keeping price growth in check relative to demand. If these workers were removed, Houston's housing production would slump, likely driving up costs for the long term [5][7]. Local homebuilders often cite labor shortages as a bigger constraint than land or permits – a shortage that would worsen without undocumented workers. In sum, Houston's housing market over the past decade has been shaped far more by economic growth and construction rates than by unauthorized immigration. The data indicate that undocumented immigrants were largely absorbed by Houston's ample housing stock and, through their labor, helped that stock grow, with no evidence of a distinctive "immigration premium" on home prices or rents.
"Without immigrants, you can't increase the supply of housing."
The Real Story: Immigration and U.S. Housing
Unauthorized Immigration
Has Not Driven Up Housing Costs
vidence reveals a clear truth, and housing experts and economists agree: the actual culprits are elsewhere.
4%
Of the U.S. population are unauthorized immigrants
23%
Of the construction workforce are immigrants nationally
Demand Impact is Muted
Unauthorized immigrants comprise a small share of the population and often live in larger, underutilized households.
Crucial for Housing Supply
Immigrant workers are essential in construction, filling critical roles that enable new housing to be built.
Main Drivers are Systemic
Housing cost increases are primarily linked to insufficient construction, low interest rates, pandemic shifts, and regulatory constraints.
Policies Could Worsen Crisis
Aggressive immigration enforcement could reduce housing supply and increase prices.
The data indicates unauthorized immigrants are often scapegoats, despite their neutral or even positive role in the housing sector.
Summary of Findings by Metro
Los Angeles
With over 1 million undocumented residents (only 17% homeowners), L.A.'s housing crisis has been driven by shortages and high demand, not illegal immigration. Research shows no link between the area's large unauthorized population and its soaring rents/home prices. Undocumented Angelenos often share housing to cope with costs and supply critical labor to homebuilding.
New York City
Roughly 800,000+ unauthorized immigrants (20% homeowners) live in New York, mostly as renters. The post-2020 rent surge occurred before recent immigration growth. One-third of NYC construction workers are foreign-born. No evidence ties New York's affordability problems to its undocumented population.
Miami
South Florida's undocumented population jumped recently (to ~1.6M statewide), yet Miami's housing price inflation has not accelerated - if anything, home price growth slowed as immigration rose. Only 1 in 5 undocumented Miamians own homes. Immigrants make up a large share of Miami's construction crews.
Houston
About 610,000 unauthorized immigrants reside in the Houston area, with a higher homeownership rate (27%) thanks to lower housing prices. Illegal immigration has had no significant independent effect on Houston's housing costs. Over 20% of Texas's construction labor is undocumented.
References
[1] [2] County Data (6037): Unauthorized Population | migrationpolicy.org
[3] [28] Beyond the Hype: Unauthorized Immigrants and the Myth of Rising House Price by Steven Shu-Hsiu Chen, Xinhui Huang, Wei Li :: SSRN
[4] [11] [25] [26] Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis. Most Economists Disagree. - Impact, Value, and Sustainable Business Initiative
[5] [6] [7] [10] [16] [17] [23] [24] Mass Deportations Would Worsen Our Housing Crisis | Urban Institute
[8] [18] [21] [22] Record 14 Million Unauthorized Immigrants Lived in the US in 2023 | Pew Research Center
[9] Profile of the Unauthorized Population - NY | migrationpolicy.org
[12] [13] [14] County Data (12086): Unauthorized Population | migrationpolicy.org
[15] The Role of the Recent Immigrant Surge in Housing Costs
[19] [20] County Data (48201): Unauthorized Population | migrationpolicy.org
[27] The Impact of Immigration on the Housing Market